Brewers vs Dodgers prediction: MLB over/under pick and odds for Saturday

Milwaukee visit Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium with the four-game series level at one apiece. Our pick is Over 7 runs at 1.80 with Fanatics, and for once all three pundits land on the same side.

The starting pitchers

Milwaukee start Jacob Misiorowski: 11-5, a 1.76 ERA and 204 strikeouts. Los Angeles start Justin Wrobleski, who came into August with a 2.62 ERA and an All-Star selection behind him.

The Wrobleski problem, and why it is not just a bad run

His last three outings: six innings and five earned runs with four home runs against Seattle on 28 July; four and a third innings and seven earned with four more home runs at the Cubs on 3 August; three and a third at Arizona on 9 August. That is 13.2 innings, 15 runs and nine home runs, and it makes him the first Dodgers pitcher to allow four home runs in two separate games in a season.

The reason it matters here is that the cause was raised publicly and never closed. After the Cubs start Wrobleski said he had changed the game plan significantly and still felt hitters were on his pitches. Dave Roberts said the stuff was as good as it had been all year and hitters seemed to be on everything. Both were describing pitch tipping. The Arizona start six days later was his first since that admission and it also went badly.

A stale story we checked and dropped

Late-July reporting had Misiorowski on a pitch limit, cut to 65 and 83 pitches. Those numbers match his 20 and 26 July starts. His two August outings were seven innings and six innings. The workload story is a postseason question, not a Saturday one, and we are not using it.

Why the total and not the side

The Quant's reasoning is plain: backing Milwaukee outright pays more, but it requires them to beat the strongest lineup in baseball at home. The total gets paid regardless of who wins. The Skeptic, who thinks the Dodgers take the game, is on the same bet for the opposite reason — he does not expect either starter to go deep, so both bullpens get used.

The counterweight, stated plainly

Misiorowski is very good and this is the best lineup he has faced. Los Angeles have won 12 of Wrobleski's 17 starts. The Arizona damage included a fielding error rather than pure contact. This is a reasoned play, not a lock.

The verdict

Over 7 runs at 1.80. Posted before first pitch and timestamped on our public record.

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