PUBLIC SCORECARD · threepundits.com/scorecard · UPDATED 1 SEP 2026 · 23:35 UTC

+0.2% ROI across
287 settled picks.

143–140 on flat 1-unit stakes. 4 push/void picks not counted. Every pick is priced at a real book and hashed on-chain before kickoff, then graded in public.

ALL-TIME · 0 LIVE NOW

AVG CLV −2.23% vs the closing line · our edge-vs-market check (208 picks) — negative means the market priced these better than we did

Straight talk: 287 picks is a young record and a 51% clip won't hold. On this sample the 95% range around that ROI runs −11% to +12% — wide enough that it can't yet separate skill from variance, and we'd rather say so than sell you a trend. Judge us over a long run, not a hot streak. Every pick is hashed on-chain before kickoff, so nothing here can be edited after the fact.

EXPLORE THE RECORD

SPORTCOMPETITIONMARKETWINDOW

SHOWING 287 SETTLED PICKS · ALL SPORTS · ALL COMPETITIONS · ALL MARKETS · ALL TIME

ROI · FLAT 1u

+0.2%

at the posted price

PROFIT

+0.65u

net, this slice

WIN RATE

51%

143–140 · 4 push/void

PICKS

287

in this slice

CUMULATIVE PROFIT · FLAT 1u · UNITS

+0.65u

−5u0u5u10u15u

PICK 1 · 7 JUNPICK 287 · 23 AUG

each step is one settled pick · oldest → newest

RECENT FORM

Rolling windows to today. Short windows swing hard — that's variance, not a signal.

NW–LNETROI

Last 7 days·NOISE00–00.00u0.0%

Last 15 days·NOISE125–6 +1pv−2.50u−20.8%

Last 30 days7330–39 +4pv−11.17u−15.3%

Last 60 days19194–93 +4pv−0.81u−0.4%

All time287143–140 +4pv+0.65u+0.2%

·NOISE = fewer than 25 picks. Read it as a curiosity, not a trend. pv = push/void, out of the win rate.

BY MONTH

Calendar months, oldest first.

NW–LNETROI

JUN 20267842–36+5.45u+7.0%

JUL 202612462–62+0.07u+0.1%

AUG 20268539–42 +4pv−4.87u−5.7%

BY SPORT & MARKET

Where the edge actually lives — biggest samples first, so the reliable rows are at the top.

NW–LNETROI

Football · Totals6935–33 +1pv−0.37u−0.5%

Football · Handicap5729–26 +2pv−0.34u−0.6%

Football · Moneyline3917–21 +1pv+1.62u+4.2%

Baseball · Moneyline3924–15+7.12u+18.3%

Tennis · Moneyline3713–24−9.39u−25.4%

Baseball · Totals·NOISE126–6−0.73u−6.1%

NBA · Handicap·NOISE96–3+2.45u+27.2%

Baseball · Handicap·NOISE73–4−1.84u−26.3%

Tennis · Handicap·NOISE54–1+2.57u+51.4%

Football · BTTS (retired)·NOISE51–4−3.33u−66.6%

NBA · Moneyline·NOISE43–1+3.26u+81.5%

Tennis · Totals·NOISE31–2−1.02u−34.0%

NBA · Totals·NOISE11–0+0.65u+65.0%

·NOISE = fewer than 25 picks. Read it as a curiosity, not a trend. pv = push/void, out of the win rate.

BY COMPETITION

Biggest samples first. Most competitions are still too thin to read.

NW–LNETROI

FIFA World Cup9649–47+3.65u+3.8%

MLB5833–25+4.55u+7.8%

WTA Wimbledon·NOISE179–8+1.43u+8.4%

ATP Wimbledon·NOISE134–9−5.96u−45.8%

UEFA Champions League Qualification·NOISE116–4 +1pv+1.45u+13.2%

WNBA·NOISE106–4+2.76u+27.6%

Brazil Série A·NOISE84–4+0.93u+11.6%

ATP Canadian Open·NOISE73–4−0.49u−7.0%

Copa Sudamericana·NOISE61–4 +1pv−3.36u−56.0%

MLS·NOISE62–4−2.16u−36.0%

Primera División·NOISE52–3−1.27u−25.4%

LaLiga·NOISE44–0+2.79u+69.6%

Allsvenskan·NOISE41–3−2.16u−54.0%

NBA·NOISE44–0+3.60u+90.0%

Copa Libertadores·NOISE31–2−0.85u−28.3%

Superliga·NOISE31–2−0.79u−26.3%

Eliteserien·NOISE32–1+0.65u+21.7%

Eredivisie·NOISE32–1+0.44u+14.7%

Liga MX·NOISE22–0+1.59u+79.5%

WTA Cincinnati·NOISE21–1+0.38u+19.0%

Primeira Liga·NOISE21–1−0.29u−14.5%

2. Bundesliga·NOISE20–2−2.00u−100.0%

WTA Canadian Open·NOISE20–2−2.00u−100.0%

Austrian Bundesliga·NOISE21–1−0.08u−4.0%

ATP Washington·NOISE20–2−2.00u−100.0%

Premier League·NOISE10–1−1.00u−100.0%

Serie A·NOISE10–1−0.50u−50.0%

ATP Cincinnati·NOISE10–1−1.00u−100.0%

Süper Lig·NOISE10–0 +1pv0.00u0.0%

League Two·NOISE10–1−1.00u−100.0%

Championship·NOISE11–0+1.21u+121.0%

League One·NOISE10–0 +1pv0.00u0.0%

Belgian Pro League·NOISE10–1−1.00u−100.0%

League of Ireland·NOISE11–0+0.89u+89.0%

Swiss Super League·NOISE11–0+1.45u+145.0%

Ekstraklasa·NOISE10–1−1.00u−100.0%

WTA Washington·NOISE11–0+1.80u+180.0%

·NOISE = fewer than 25 picks. Read it as a curiosity, not a trend. pv = push/void, out of the win rate.

BY PRICE

Longer prices win less often and still pay more. Bands first, then the favourite / underdog split.

NW–LNETROI

Under 1.807542–32 +1pv−1.21u−1.6%

1.80 – 2.0915377–75 +1pv−3.50u−2.3%

2.10 – 2.493916–21 +2pv−0.12u−0.3%

2.50 and up·NOISE208–12+5.49u+27.5%

Favourites (under 2.00)18698–86 +2pv−6.00u−3.2%

Underdogs (2.00 and up)10145–54 +2pv+6.65u+6.6%

·NOISE = fewer than 25 picks. Read it as a curiosity, not a trend. pv = push/void, out of the win rate.

WHEN THE ROOM AGREES vs ARGUES

Did all three pundits back the pick, or was it contested? Picks with no recorded stance are left out.

NW–LNETROI

Room agreed (3 of 3)12763–62 +2pv−3.79u−3.0%

Room argued (split)12661–63 +2pv+2.61u+2.1%

EVERY SETTLED PICK

287 picks · newest first · tap a row for the debate

#DATEMATCHPICKODDSRESULTP/L

RISK & VARIANCE · WHOLE RECORD

Always the full 287 picks, never a filtered slice — drawdown and a confidence band only mean something over the whole run.

MAX DRAWDOWN

−13.03u

Deepest peak-to-trough fall, bottoming at pick 287. This is the losing run you'd have had to sit through.

CURRENTLY OFF PEAK

−13.03u

Below the record peak of +13.68u set at pick 224.

BREAKEVEN WIN RATE

49.7%

What an average price of 2.01 needs just to stand still. We're at 51% — ahead by 0.8pts.

ROI · 95% RANGE

−11% → +12%

The honest read on 287 picks: the true ROI behind a +0.2% result sits somewhere in that range. A tighter answer needs a lot more picks.

FORMLWLLL–WWWLLast 10, newest first · on a 1-pick losing run. Longest winning run 6, longest losing run 6 — over 287 picks.

PROFIT BY SPORT

NBA

+6.36u · 14

Baseball

+4.55u · 58

Football

−2.42u · 170

Tennis

−7.84u · 45

WHO'S RIGHT WHEN THEY DISAGREE

The Skeptic124 contested calls

54.0%

The Quant124 contested calls

49.2%

The Believer124 contested calls

46.8%

126 settled picks split the room. Backing a winner or fading a loser counts as a right call — pushes score no one. Still a small sample; these gaps will narrow.

ROI and profit are flat 1-unit stakes at the posted price. Conviction staking runs in the background and isn't reflected here. See a settled pick ↗

+0.2% ROI across287 settled picks.

+0.2% ROI across
287 settled picks.