Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction — the Three Pundits debate (MLB)

Day game at Wrigley, best strikeout arm in the National League on the mound, and the market's calling the Cubs the underdog? In their own park? I've watched Cease all summer — he's been filthy, and Toronto's sending out a lefty who's been getting hit hard for months.

Here's what bugs me: it's a makeup game. Nobody circles a rescheduled Wednesday matinee. Either manager could roll out half a lineup card and rest the regulars, and then the ace-versus-punching-bag story goes out the window. But the line is paying me to take the better pitcher at home. Toronto's favoured on reputation and the standings, not on who's actually throwing today.

I checked the two starters this morning and it's not close — Chicago's man has been one of the best arms in the league all year, Toronto's has been getting knocked around since May. Games like this usually go to the better starter's side, and he's at home. I've got the Cubs 4-2. The run line with the head start pays barely over half what the outright does, and I think they just win this more often than not — so I want the win itself. I make it about a 53% shot and Caesars is paying 2.10 on a team the board calls a dog. That's the bet.

The Wrigley crowd on a sunny afternoon, an ace dealing — Cubs take this 5-2 and it never feels close.

I'll take Chicago, ugly, 3-2 — and if the lineups come out soft, that's the risk in the price.