Palmeiras are showing up to Couto Pereira with SIX first-teamers missing and no Abel on the touchline — Giay and Felipe Anderson just joined the list this week, López is still on holiday after the World Cup final, and Vitor Roque is only fit for the bench. First game in five weeks, improvised attack, hostile away ground at night. Coritiba smell blood at home, they nick this.

The bit that actually bothers me isn't the injury list, it's the price. Yesterday Palmeiras were longer with FOUR out. Today they've got six out and the line got SHORTER. Thirteen unbeaten and top of the table, sure — but that run was built with the players who aren't on the bus. I'm not backing Coritiba to actually beat the league leaders, they've lost three straight to them. But paying Palmeiras like they're at full strength? No chance.

Most likely score in the model is 1-1 — rust plus six absences drags Palmeiras' expected goals down hard, and the market moved the wrong direction on the news. On $10: Coritiba ML at 4.80 is the lottery ticket but my model still can't make them outright favourites against this squad depth; Coritiba +0.5 at 1.98 on BetOnline cashes on the draw and the home win both. The BetOnline pair strips to about 48% fair for the no-loss side — I make it 53% with the absentee list priced properly. Coritiba +0.5, 1.98, BetOnline. That's where the money is.

1-0, remember I said it.

Give me the draw, 1-1, and the safety rail.