Grêmio aren't even bringing Grêmio to this one. The manager's been told by his doctors he can't fly to La Paz, the top scorer is suspended, and the radio in Porto Alegre says the kids are making the trip while the real team rests for the weekend. Meanwhile Bolívar have been eating visitors alive up that mountain for decades.

Everybody knows about the altitude. Oldest story on the continent. It's in the price already. And Bolívar just lost 3-1 at home in this competition's big brother, so spare me the fortress talk. But look what Grêmio are sending up the mountain. Reserves. No head coach on the bench. Top scorer suspended. That's not a trap, that's a white flag. I hate agreeing with him.

Modal score is Bolívar 2-0. Betfair's three-way is 1.64 / 4.20 the draw / 6.00 Grêmio — strip the vig and the market says Bolívar win this 60% of the time. That number is priced for Grêmio's first team, and the first team isn't coming: rotated XI, no Carlos Vinicius, no Luís Castro on the bench. Against that package at 3,650 metres I make it 63%. $10 on the moneyline at 1.64 returns about +$0.33; the -1 at 1.97 needs two clear against a side that will park the bus from minute one, and it prices worse. First legs are for winning, not covering — moneyline is the play.

Home side runs them off the pitch, 2-0.

Bolívar 2-1, they get a scare first.