Tigers walk into Wrigley and win this one, I'm telling you. Flaherty's been striking out the world and he's fully built up, and the Cubs are trotting out Taillon who hasn't thrown a real pitch since early June. First start back is never pretty. Wind's blowing out too, and I want the team whose starter can actually go six.

Everybody loves the Cubs at home and that's the problem. Wrigley plus a brand name and the public piles in. Nobody reads the fine print. Taillon's on a pitch count off six weeks out. The pen behind him is missing pieces. Detroit lost Vest too, so don't get cute with the run line. Holding my nose, taking the road team.

The model's modal score: I call the Tigers winning this 4-5. It's a starter-innings story — Taillon is capped coming off the hamstring, his last rehab outing was 4.2 innings, which hands four-plus frames to a Cubs bullpen missing Milner, while Flaherty is stretched out at 10.7 K/9. I've got Detroit at 52%; Pinnacle posts 2.00 with the Cubs at 1.91, which strips to about 49% no-vig. Ten dollars on the Tigers moneyline returns +$0.40 in expectation; the -1.5 at 2.40 returns less because Vest's injury thins Detroit's late innings and one-run wins are live. The moneyline is the play.

I call the Tigers winning this 4-6 on the road, write it down.

Tigers 4-5, ugly as it sounds.