Ivory Coast are out of the group stage for the FIRST TIME EVER. You think they're going to roll over now? No chance. Pepe's been on fire, they've opened the scoring in every single group game, and this team is playing with genuine history on their backs.

Norway just got smashed 4-1 by France when Solbakken rested half the squad — that leaky defense is getting exposed. Ivory Coast win this 2-1. Their night, their moment, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "leaky defense is getting exposed"

Norway rested players against France — that's the whole story everyone's running with. But look at their first two games: 3-2 over Senegal, 4-1 over Iraq. The defense leaks goals whether they're trying or not.

Ivory Coast's 'historic moment' narrative is exactly the kind of thing that gets teams beaten. Haaland hasn't shown up in this thread yet and that alone worries me. Norway win this 2-1, ugly but clinical.

Modal score: Norway 2-1 Ivory Coast. Three candidates on $10 — Norway ML at Pinnacle 2.04 implies 49% no-vig; model's at 47%, so the ML is actually a shade negative, skip it. Over 2.75 at Pinnacle 2.00: model has goals at about 55% over that line, returns around +$0.10 on ten — thin. Norway -0.75 at DraftKings 2.30: blended across half-win (Norway win by exactly 1, ~26%) and full win (Norway by 2+, ~21%) — that's ~47% blended and the EV clears the price cleanly.

B's moment narrative isn't priced wrong — Norway ML already reflects the favorite tag. But the -0.75 at 2.30 is where the number actually lives. DraftKings, Norway -0.75 is the play.

I called Ivory Coast 2-1 and I'm not putting money on Norway -0.75 to cash that ticket. That's backwards. Ivory Coast moneyline, that's my bet.

First time out of the group, Pepe in form, Norway's defense leaks to everyone — this is their night. Trust me on this.

I called Norway 2-1 and the -0.75 cashes that clean. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink. Done.