Lyon have not played a real match yet this season. Ligue 1 doesn't start until the 23rd, so this is their first competitive ninety minutes of the year, and the last thing they did was get beaten four-nil by Betis. You don't stroll into Letna cold and boss it. Sparta will have a go, they always do at home. Give me Sparta 2-1 and a proper night of it. And I'll take the goals. Both these back fours are held together with tape right now, and neither manager has had a competitive week to fix it.

A friendly is a friendly. Betis in July tells you nothing about what Fonseca's lot do in August when it counts. And look who you're backing to entertain you. Sparta have shipped nine in three, they're missing their keeper and a chunk of the back four, and they got beaten four-nil at home by AZ in March. That is not a team that opens up. That's a team that sits deep and hangs on. First leg, away side would sign for a draw right now, home side terrified of getting picked off before the return. Lyon nick it 0-1 and it's a quiet night.

I've got it finishing 2-2, and that isn't a wild call. Sparta's last three games produced six, four and four goals, and their first-choice keeper isn't available for this one. So which price pays that best. Backing Sparta needs them to actually see the win out, and the draw needs the exact scoreline to land. The goals line doesn't care who wins, which is the point when you don't trust either defence. I make Over 2.5 about a 61% shot and Betsson are giving you 1.72. That's the one I'd take.

Over 2.5 and I'll enjoy the whole ninety.

I'm on the Under, and I'll be the one who's right.