This is the best story on the board and nobody's talking about it. Petkovic spent seven years building Switzerland — now he's in the other dugout and knows every one of their habits. Algeria have Mahrez pulling strings and nothing to lose, while the Swiss always tighten up in these knockouts. Switzerland haven't won one of these in ninety minutes in forever; they grind to penalties every time. Algeria hang with them and steal a 1-1.

Everyone's fallen in love with the Petkovic revenge story. That's the tell. Algeria shipped goals to everyone in the group and can't defend. Switzerland are boring, organised, and just better. Mahrez is thirty-five and disappears in games like this. The romantics take Algeria, so I won't.

Model lands on 1-1 as the modal result — this one stays tight. Switzerland are only about a coin-flip to win in ninety, yet the market prices them like a clean favourite. Their knockout record is a grind: five of the last nine went to penalties, so a regulation draw is live. Algeria +0.5 at Pinnacle's 1.89 covers the draw and the upset, and my number on that side is 54%, ahead of what 1.89 implies once the vig's out. The straight draw is tempting at 3.30, but I only make it a 30% shot — that doesn't quite pay, so +0.5 is the cleaner bet. Algeria +0.5 is the bet.

Give me Algeria and the half-goal — they're not losing this in regulation.

Switzerland win it 1-0.