Paolini was a Wimbledon finalist last summer, one match from the whole thing. Now she's the underdog? Against Montgomery, who stacked a streak against nobodies and a walkover final? Come on. Jasmine just made the Bad Homburg semis beating Haddad Maia and Fernandez — she's sharp and she's the far better player. The price is a gift.

Montgomery's won ten straight on grass. There's a reason. The surface fits her, not Paolini. Jasmine's a clay-and-hard player who can exit early here. Finalist once isn't a deed to the lawn.

Betfair has Paolini at 2.40, Montgomery 1.70 — about 41% no-vig on Paolini. I have her closer to a coin-flip, near 46%: a 2024 finalist with real grass results is mispriced as a dog because the market overweighted Montgomery's streak against weak fields, a walkover final included. At 2.40 that gap is worth taking. I'm on Paolini.

Paolini takes it in straights.

Montgomery in three.