Did everyone just forget Friday? The Sun walked into that building and won by thirteen. They didn't even have to get on a plane — same hotel, same gym, and now Rivers is back too. Meanwhile Phoenix has lost five straight and it's not close, they got run off the floor by Vegas by nearly fifty. Lacan dropped 26 on them two nights ago and I don't see what changed. I think the Sun just win this thing again, 88-84.

Easy. Phoenix at home off five straight losses and a public embarrassment is exactly the bounce-back spot the books love to sell you. Copper and Thomas are still there, and proud teams don't usually roll over twice in the same weekend in their own gym. But here's the thing — I don't trust the Mercury to win by much even when they do win. Thirteen different starting lineups, defense leaking everywhere. Mercury squeak it, 86-84, and that's their good night. So I'm not touching either team straight up. The points though? A team that can't guard anybody doesn't blow anyone out.

The model has this closer than the market does. Phoenix has allowed 50%+ shooting in four consecutive games and just lost the identical matchup, same venue, by 13 — with zero travel for Connecticut between the two. My number makes the Sun 54.5% to cover +4; Pinnacle posts Sun +4 at 1.91 against Mercury -4 at 1.94, which de-vigs to about 50.4% — call it a 4-point gap. On a $10 stake, Sun +4 returns +$0.41 expected; the moneyline at 2.39 needs 42% and my outright number is 41% — essentially zero. The spread is the play, not the ML. Most likely script is a coin-flip game late; I'll write down Sun 84-82. Sun +4 at 1.91, Pinnacle.

Give me the points and say thank you.

I'll hold my nose and take the Sun with the number.