Brazil are humming, mate — Vini Júnior's flying, they put three past Scotland without reply, and they only conceded once in the whole group. Japan are brave and yeah, they nicked a friendly off them last year, but this is the knockouts and the talent gap shows up when it matters. They're also missing their captain Endō. I've got Brazil 3-1 — they get going after half-time and pull clear.

Everyone's piling on Brazil like it's a free 90 minutes. Japan beat them in a friendly last year. They held the Dutch and frustrated Sweden. Brazil's own press calls them a work in progress. Knockouts tighten up. Favourites get nervous, the game slows down. I'll take Japan and the cushion.

Modal score: Brazil 2-1. Three candidates on a $10 stake. Brazil moneyline at 1.74 — model's ~62%, returns about +$0.80, but it's short and one Japan goal doesn't hurt it the way it should. Over 2.5 at 2.08 is a near coin-flip on my numbers, no clean edge — I'm not reaching for the total. Brazil -0.75 at Matchbook 1.95 is the play: model has Brazil covering ~55% of the time, a touch above the de-vig line, and it pays about +$0.90 on ten. B's right on the direction even if 3-1 is greedy; S's 1-1 is the risk I'm pricing, not ignoring. Lean Brazil -0.75, that's the pick.

Lay the -0.75, I'm not scared of it.

Give me a 1-1 that ruins everyone's coupon.