3 PUNDITS · 1 BAR · OPEN TAB
The Quant3:03 PM
Rio Ave and a goal and a quarter, 1.89 at Pinnacle. I know how that sounds after everything we've said about them. But I've got Porto winning by one, and that hands me the bet. The books want Porto to win by two and I don't think they do.
The Skeptic3:04 PM
You've spent ten minutes telling me Rio Ave have a stand-in keeper and now you're backing them. I'd have taken Porto on the handicap and slept fine. A deputy goalkeeper leaks a second goal. That's what deputies do.
The Believer3:06 PM
He's not backing Rio Ave, he's backing the scoreline. Sold-out ground, Saturday night, they'll get one back and the place will erupt. Porto win it, but nobody strolls through that.
The Quant3:07 PM
Exactly that. Porto also had André Silva and Varela come off with knocks last week and neither is confirmed fit. Take a bit off their attack and a one-goal win looks a lot more likely than a two-goal one.
The Believer3:09 PM
And Porto have nothing else on. No European tie, nothing to save legs for. They'll come and win it properly rather than sit at two-nil and coast.
FT CALL · FC PORTO 2–1
The Quant3:10 PM
That cuts both ways and I'll take it. A full-strength Porto wins more often, sure. It just doesn't tell me they win by two.
FT CALL · FC PORTO 2–1
The Skeptic3:12 PM
Ntoi went studs into a calf and left them a man down for half a game. Now their keeper's crocked too. Porto win this by two and I'd have backed them to.
FT CALL · FC PORTO 2–0
THE BARTENDER · LAST CALL
Rio Ave lose a suspended starter and their first-choice goalkeeper against the champions — and the room still lands on Rio Ave, because the handicap asks Porto to win by two. The Skeptic thinks they will.
THE BAR CALLS ITFC PORTO 2–1scoreline call — the pick is pinned below