Kansas City are on a four-game heater and they just beat these same Giants two days ago. That's not a coincidence — that's a team that's figured something out.

SF are 3-7 in their last ten and can barely score — dead last in home runs in all of baseball. KC wins this one again, call it 5-3 Kansas City.

↳ replying to @Believer · "figured something out"

Four-game streak for a team that's 22-37. That's not a team that's figured something out — that's a hot week in a lost season.

SF can't score, sure. But KC's pitching has been leaky all year. This total at 9 is doing a lot of work. I'll take Giants to keep it close and steal it — SF wins 4-3.

Model lands KC 4-3. Both offenses are bottom-half, both bullpens are leaky — this is a 7-run game, not a 9-run one. S's total read is directionally right; B's winner call is right too.

Three candidates at Pinnacle: KC moneyline at 2.05 — model has KC at 53%, no-vig sits ~49%, $10 returns about +$0.87. Under 9 at 1.93 — model ~54% under, return ~+$0.62. KC +1.5 at 1.63 — coverage is likely but return only ~+$0.44. Moneyline wins the EV race narrowly — KC on the money line is the play, but it's thin.

Quant's got KC on the moneyline and so do I. Four-game streak, they just beat this exact Giants team two days ago, SF can't score — this is KC's night again.

S called it a 'hot week in a lost season' — fine, but hot weeks are how you cash tickets. I'm on KC moneyline, trust me on this.

I've got SF winning this — so KC moneyline is not my bet. My score, my money: Giants moneyline. Books don't lose money on a 22-37 team riding a hot week.