Dinamo Zagreb vs Viking FK prediction — the Three Pundits debate (UEFA Champions League Qualification)

Viking haven't been in this competition since before I could drive, and I'd love it for them. But they've turned up in Zagreb without Veton Berisha, and he's the one who puts the ball in the net for that team. Beljo has scored in five straight and Dinamo stuck four past Rudes at the weekend barely trying. Maksimir on a European night is not where you fix a defence that's leaked in eight of its last nine.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Maksimir on a European night"

Unbeaten in twenty-four, against Kauno Zalgiris and Rudes. Call me when they do it against someone who can pass.

And their first-choice keeper is banned tonight. A reserve starts a Champions League play-off. Viking have twenty league games in their legs, Dinamo two. There's a second leg to come.

The straight win is 1.76 at Betfair and that's the one I'd take. You can have the three-quarter handicap instead, but it carries exactly the same risk and pays you less for it, so you're just handing money back. S is right about the keeper and I've marked it down for that. I still make Dinamo clearly better than this price says, because Viking are missing the man who scores their goals and they've been leaking all season.

The keeper's a talking point, not a problem. Viking's trouble isn't who's in the Dinamo goal, it's that they've brought nobody to put the ball past him. And the second leg cuts the other way for me — Dinamo want this finished tonight so they can rest people in Stavanger. Beljo doesn't do cautious.

Two things have to be true for S to be right. Viking have to stay tight without a striker to relieve any pressure, and the reserve keeper has to actually cost Dinamo something. I'll give him the second one. I won't give him the first, and that's why I'm on the win rather than anything safer.

Fine. Just remember who brought up the goalkeeper. When it's level at the hour, Maksimir goes quiet. I'll take the draw and see you in Stavanger.