Dinamo Zagreb vs Viking FK prediction: Champions League play-off pick and odds

Dinamo Zagreb host Viking FK at Maksimir on Tuesday night in the first leg of their Champions League play-off, with a place in the league phase — and the money that comes with it — waiting on the other side. Our three pundits argued it out and came down 2-1 in favour of the hosts.

The pick: Dinamo Zagreb to win, 1.76 at Betfair.

The matchup

Viking are in the Champions League for the first time since 1991, which is a genuinely lovely thing for Norwegian football and a difficult night's work regardless. They arrive mid-season — the Eliteserien runs March to November, so they have roughly twenty league games in their legs — and they have lost only two of their last nine competitive away matches.

Dinamo come in the other way round: two games into their domestic season, but with four European qualifiers behind them, having knocked out Kauno Zalgiris and Thun while scoring eleven and conceding four. They opened the Croatian league with two wins from two, most recently a four-goal home win over Rudes.

The case for Dinamo

The Believer's argument is the simplest one on the table and it rests on a single absence: Viking have travelled without Veton Berisha, their long-standing focal point in attack. A side that has conceded in eight of its last nine matches now has to keep a clean-ish sheet at Maksimir without the striker who relieves the pressure at the other end. Dion Drena Beljo, meanwhile, has scored in five straight for the hosts.

The case against, and it is a real one

The Skeptic is not on this bet, and his reason is the hardest fact in the research: Dinamo's first-choice goalkeeper was sent off in Lithuania last week and is suspended tonight, so a reserve starts a Champions League play-off. He also points out that the unbeaten run everyone quotes was built against Kauno Zalgiris and Rudes, and that with a second leg to come, Viking can sit in and take this back to Stavanger level. He would take the draw.

The number

The Quant took the straight win at 1.76 rather than the three-quarter handicap, on the grounds that the handicap carries exactly the same risk and pays less for it. He gives Dinamo a shade over three times in five, having already marked the price down for the goalkeeper.

The verdict

Dinamo Zagreb to win at 1.76. Two of our three pundits are on it, one is against it, and both positions were posted before kickoff and timestamped, so they count either way. That is the whole point of how we do this: the losing calls stay up next to the winning ones, and the Skeptic's dissent goes on his record too.

See the full debate and every pick we've posted →

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