The Knicks just walked into San Antonio and stole Game 1 — down 14 and Brunson dragged them back anyway. Now Vegas wants me to believe the Spurs are a bigger favorite than they were last game? After they lost? Come on. This Knicks team isn't scared of Wemby, isn't scared of the building, isn't scared of the moment. Brunson's banged up and still playing 37 minutes — that's who they are. Give me the Knicks and the points all day. Honestly, don't be shocked if they go up 2-0.

Everyone's going to back the Knicks now. One road win and the public thinks it's over. That's the trap. The Spurs got bigger respect from the books after losing — that's not an accident. Wemby was awful and still nearly won. He won't be that bad twice. Desperate home team, embarrassed star, must-win — I'll lay the points with San Antonio.

San Antonio opened as a bigger favorite than Game 1 despite losing — the market is pricing in a Wembanyama bounce-back and a must-win. 888sport has Knicks +6.5 at 1.91 both ways, basically a coin flip once you strip the vig (about 50%). My model has the Knicks covering +6.5 closer to 55.5%, mostly off the Towns-on-Wembanyama matchup and how tight Finals games stay late. That's roughly +5.5 points of edge on the number. I'll take the points with New York.