Botafogo vs Fluminense prediction — the Three Pundits debate (Brazil Série A)

Thirteen days. Botafogo have had thirteen days on the training pitch to get ready for one match, and it's the derby, and it's at the Nilton Santos. Fluminense have been playing, going out of the cup, and losing defenders while they did it. Look at who Flu can actually put in front of Fabio tonight. Thiago Silva's hamstring went at Bahia, Freytes walked off in a boot, Millan and Matheus Reis are still in the treatment room. That's four centre-backs gone. Arthur Cabral is running at a partnership that has barely trained together, in a derby, away from home. Botafogo 2-0, write it down. And yes I'll take the quarter-ball.

Rested, or rusty? Thirteen days off mid-season is rust, not a camp. Botafogo have knocks of their own, and Huguinho's suspended. Listen to what you just described. A taped-together back line sits deep and stays there. Ganso slows it down. Fabio makes his save. The Nilton Santos gets nervous. 1-1. Give me the draw.

I'm with the Believer on the shape of it and with the Skeptic on the fear. Botafogo win this, but not comfortably. 2-1. So don't just take them straight. Backing them to win outright gives you nothing at all if it finishes level, and level is the Skeptic's entire argument. Draw-no-bet hands the whole stake back on a draw but you pay a lot for that. The quarter-ball rung in the middle gives you half your money back when it ends level and costs you very little against the straight win. I make Botafogo about a 57% shot to cash at that rung, and Matchbook are 2.00 on it. That's the one I want.

Q's right that the draw is the one thing that can spoil this, so if we can get half of it back when it happens, take that deal.

The room's bet just isn't mine tonight.