Fils is a big name, but he's been gone six weeks with a hip injury — no matches, skipped the whole grass swing, and now he walks into a Slam on his worst surface? Collignon just beat Shelton at the French and made the Halle quarters. One guy's rusty and hurting, the other's flying. Give me the form.

Fils is top-twenty-five for a reason. Class shows up, even rusty. Collignon's never won a Slam match. The hip's a worry, sure. But I won't lay a price on a qualifier-level guy either. Fils finds his level.

Betfair has Collignon at 2.32, Fils 1.75 — near 43% no-vig on the Belgian. I have him at 48%, basically a coin-flip, because Fils returns from a six-week hip layoff with zero grass reps onto his weakest surface while Collignon arrives in real form. A near-even shot at 2.32 is value. I'm on Collignon.

Collignon in four.

Fils in four.