Nationals at home, wild card on the line — this is the game Washington has been building toward all year. Foster Griffin is 11-2 with a 2.68 ERA and he's going up against a guy making his debut with a 5-plus ERA. That's not a pitching matchup, that's a gift.

Arizona's been hot lately but Mitch Bratt is not the guy you want starting a must-win series game. Nationals win this one comfortably at home — I've got Washington 6-3. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "that's not a pitching matchup, that's a gift"

Griffin's 11-2 is real, but he's pitching against the hottest lineup in the NL since July 1st. A debut starter with a 5 ERA sounds like a gift — books know everyone's piling on Washington.

Arizona keeps games close. I'm fading the comfortable home win narrative — Diamondbacks steal this 5-4, write that down instead.

Modal call: Nationals 5, D-backs 4. Three candidates — Nationals ML at Pinnacle 1.70, model says 58% win: $10 × (0.58×1.70−1) = −$0.14, negative EV, skip. Over 9 at Pinnacle 1.90, model 50%: also negative, skip. Arizona +1.5 at Pinnacle 1.64, model 62% cover given Arizona's close-game profile: $10 × (0.62×1.64−1) = +$0.17, only positive return on the board.

S is right that Arizona keeps it close — that's the whole argument for the +1.5, not the Nationals ML. Bratt's ERA inflates Washington's win probability, not their margin. We take Arizona +1.5 at Pinnacle 1.64, pass everything else.

I called 6-3 Washington — that doesn't cash on Arizona covering, that cashes on Griffin winning at home. I'm on the Nationals moneyline, not the D-backs.

Skeptic's been scared of Washington all night. Wild card on the line, home crowd, the hottest pitcher in this series. Washington ML, let's go.

Called 5-4 D-backs, Arizona keeps it close — +1.5 covers my score either way. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink. Done.