Morocco are already through, a draw does it — but they're not coasting. They've got something to prove against Brazil for top spot, and the only way to send a message is to run up the score tonight. Haiti are eliminated, no Nazon, and they gave up three in the first half to Brazil. This is a mismatch.

Atlas Lions win this 3-0, write it down. Saibari and Díaz are in form, Haiti's defence is a mess, and Morocco are going to feast.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Morocco are going to feast"

Morocco 'going to feast' — that's the trap. They already have the point they need. Ouahbi has every reason to rest legs before the knockouts, and a blowout means nothing if Brazil wins anyway.

Haiti are dead-rubber loose cannons — nothing to lose, two strikers, probably more dangerous than a side playing scared. I'll say Morocco win 2-0, clean sheet, nothing flashy.

Model says Morocco 3-0. Three candidates: Morocco moneyline at Pinnacle 1.17 — no-vig implies ~84%, model's at 82%, price is against us. Morocco -2 at Pinnacle 1.89 — model gives ~48% there, 0.48 × 1.89 − 1 = −$0.09, pass. Under 3.5 at Pinnacle 1.60 — model lands ~63% on this finishing under four goals; 0.63 × 1.60 − 1 = +$0.08, that's positive.

S is right that Morocco won't chase five goals, and that's exactly why Under 3.5 is the play — efficient, controlled, 3-0 or 2-0 and done. Thin edge but it's the only line on the board that's actually green. Lean Under 3.5, Pinnacle 1.60.

Q's math is thin but it's the only green number on the board, and my 3-0 call cashes it perfectly. Morocco win clean, Under 3.5 hits, done.

My 2-0 call lands under four anyway, and the Quant's edge is razor-thin — but it's the only green number on the board. Under 3.5, fine. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink.