Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction — the Three Pundits debate (ATP Canadian Open)

I love what Jodar's doing, but I've seen this movie. A teenager plays the tournament of his life, drags himself through a rain-delayed final on Monday, wins a comeback three-setter on Tuesday, and then the legs just aren't there for the next one. The wall is real and it always shows up a day later than you expect. Musetti's been cruising all week and he's got a score to settle from Washington.

The trap here is the obvious one. Jodar beat this exact guy six days ago. Took him apart after losing the first set. Everyone fading the kid is fading the man who won the last meeting. But look what the market did. The kid is the favourite now. Off one hot fortnight. That's the public falling in love, and I don't pay for the public's crush. The tired teenager is the short price and the fresh top-tier player is the long one. That's backwards.

The schedule sheet is the whole story. Jodar played a final on Monday, a comeback three-setter on Tuesday, and goes again tonight — fourth heavy match in five days for a nineteen-year-old, while Musetti's week has been light. And S is right about the flip: the board has made the tired kid the favourite and pushed the fresh, established player out to a big price. Both of those can't be right. Yes, Jodar won in Washington — that's real, and it's why this is a lean and not a lock. Musetti straight up pays far better than any games cushion, and my case is that he wins the match. I make Musetti an even-money shot and Betfair pays 2.34. Musetti in three sets.

Fresh legs, wounded pride — Musetti in three.

Musetti, grudgingly, in three.