Ostapenko owns two grass titles and she just bageled Ruzic 6-0 — she is flying into this one. These two have never met on grass, and the last time they played anywhere she smoked Sabalenka.

Everyone's slamming the number one at a buck-thirty. That's the trap. Sabalenka wobbled and scraped through her last match. Ostapenko hits through grass like nobody else does.

Sim's modal is Sabalenka in three, 2-1 in sets — close, not a blowout. The games line is where the price lags: GTbets has Ostapenko +4.5 at 1.93, a coin-flip line I make closer to 55%. Even Pinnacle's no-vig has her covering north of 53%, so 1.93 at a soft book is real value. Take Ostapenko plus the games — the buffer cashes even if Sabalenka closes it out.

I'm not tiptoeing with a handicap here: give me Ostapenko to win the whole thing outright.

She keeps this tight — give me Ostapenko and the games.