Paraguay just sent Germany home on penalties — this is the most stubborn team left in the whole tournament. France are brilliant, but you don't carve up a block like that four goals to nil. They nick a tight one, maybe one-nil, and Paraguay stay right in it.

Everyone's got France winning by three or four. Against this Paraguay? No chance. Gill stood on his head against Germany and that back line doesn't break.

Modal is France 1-0 — they win it, but the bus holds the margin down. BetOnline has Paraguay +1.5 at 2.47; strip the vig off the line and Paraguay covers about 39%, but against a side that shut out Germany I make it nearer 44%. That's value on the underdog cushion — Paraguay plus the goals, not laying France's handicap.

Give me Paraguay and the goal and a half.

France win, but it's a one-goal night — give me Paraguay plus the goals.