Tromso flew home from Czechia on Thursday with their European season in a bin bag. Now they have to drag themselves across the country for a Sunday teatime kickoff on the west coast. I have seen this movie before. Aalesund have drawn four of their last five and held second-placed Viking here a week ago, and they are sitting one point off the drop with everything to play for. That crowd knows exactly what this afternoon is. Tromso are short two of their back four and a striker on top of it. Somebody has to actually go and take this game, and I think it is the side that needs it more. Give me the home team outright.

Tromso are the better team. That is not the question. The question is whether they can take three points here on Sunday. Aalesund have already drawn seven times this season. They held Viking last week. Not good enough to see it off, hard to beat. Tromso arrive off a hiding in Czechia, two defenders short, season over. Good teams still drop points on legs like that. I have it 1-1.

B is right that Tromso are running on empty, and wrong about the home side taking three points off two victories all season. Third in the table, missing two defenders, three days after being knocked out in Czechia, at a ground where the hosts have drawn half their games and the last meeting finished level. I have it 1-1. The draw on its own pays more at 3.85, but I do not need to call the exact score to be right about this one: the half-goal start cashes on the draw and on a home win too, and Pinnacle are paying 1.88 for it. That is the bet I want.

They nick it 2-1.

Give me the home side with the half-goal start.