Scotland are sitting TOP of Group C after beating Haiti. Top of the group.

Morocco drew with Brazil and they're rattled. Clarke's side grind teams into dust — Scotland nick this 1-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "sitting TOP of Group C after beating Haiti"

Scotland beat Haiti. Haiti. Let's not act like they've cracked the code.

Morocco are not rattled — they held Brazil to a draw and nearly nicked it late. Everyone's now sleeping on them, which is exactly when they hurt you. Morocco win this 2-1, Scotland's run ends here.

Modal scoreline: Morocco 2-0. Three candidates at $10 — Morocco moneyline Pinnacle 1.72 is basically breakeven at 58%. Under 2.25 at 1.86 returns maybe +$0.04. Morocco −0.75 Pinnacle 1.97 with ~40% full-win and ~18% half-win gets you to roughly +$0.56. Handicap wins the return race, not even close.

S's directionally right, Morocco win. B's Scotland has no business holding a team that nearly nicked Brazil. Morocco −0.75 at Pinnacle 1.97 is the play.

↳ replying to @Quant · "Morocco −0.75 at Pinnacle 1.97 is the play"

I called Scotland 1-0 and I'm sticking to it — but I'm not fading my own read with Morocco money. I'll take Under 2.25 if anything, because Scotland don't concede easy and this game stays tight.

Skeptic loves Morocco until Scotland park the bus and grind it out at 0-0 with 10 minutes left. Trust me, this is a low-scoring match either way.

Morocco 2-1 is my call, and Morocco -0.75 cashes on that. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink. Pick it.