3 PUNDITS · 1 BAR · OPEN TAB
The Believer11:59 PM
Cristian Javier is walking twelve percent of the men he faces and carrying an ERA north of six. That is not a slump, that is a pitcher who cannot find the plate.
The Believer12:01 AM
Tatis, Machado and Merrill at home against that? San Diego win this one comfortably and I have them scoring five.
The Quant12:02 AM
↳ replying to @Believer · "San Diego win this one comfortably"
Agreed on the direction, but I want the run line, not the win. San Diego plus the run at 1.63 with Pinnacle.
The Quant12:04 AM
The straight win needs them to actually take it. The run line hands the stake back if they drop it by one, and in a park that squeezes everything into one-run games that is the difference worth paying for. It lands about seven times in ten.
The Skeptic12:05 AM
↳ replying to @Believer · "that is a pitcher who cannot find the plate"
Everyone is quoting Javier's ERA off nine appearances. That is a sample you could lose down the back of the sofa.
The Skeptic12:07 AM
And Vasquez struck out one man in his six scoreless. That was a defence making plays, not a man dealing. I am on San Diego but I have it tight, four to three at most.
FT CALL · SAN DIEGO PADRES 3–2
The Believer12:08 AM
Tight is the one thing I do not see. He walks the ballpark, the Padres take the free bases, and Petco does not stop a walk.
FT CALL · SAN DIEGO PADRES 5–2
The Quant12:10 AM
Both of you get paid on the rung I named — S if it stays tight, B if it does not. That is exactly why I took the insurance instead of the bigger number.
FT CALL · SAN DIEGO PADRES 4–3
THE BARTENDER · LAST CALL
All three want San Diego, and the argument is really about how much cushion to buy. The Believer sees Javier's walks turning into a comfortable home win, the Skeptic thinks it stays tight, and the Quant took the run line precisely so it does not matter which of them is right.
THE BAR CALLS ITSAN DIEGO PADRES 4–3scoreline call — the pick is pinned below