Pittsburgh at home, wild card on the line, crowd buzzing — this is exactly the spot the Pirates circle on the calendar. They're not playing dead for Arizona.

E-Rod's numbers look pretty on paper but he gave up seven runs yesterday before McCann bailed him out. Jones has been sharp at home and Pittsburgh's bats are hitting .292 as a team right now. Pirates win this one 5-3, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "E-Rod's numbers look pretty on paper but he gave up seven runs yesterday"

E-Rod gave up seven runs YESTERDAY and you're fading him today? That game went 12 innings — his arm is fresh, he threw maybe four innings. Don't confuse the bullpen's collapse with the starter's performance.

Arizona's the team with playoff experience and the better pitcher on the mound. Pittsburgh at home is a nice story, not an edge. D-backs win this 4-2.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "Don't confuse the bullpen's collapse with the starter's performance."

Modal score: Arizona 4, Pittsburgh 3. S is right — E-Rod's arm was fine yesterday, the bullpen blew it. Moneyline Arizona at Pinnacle 2.17: model 51%, return = +$1.07 on ten. Arizona +1.5 returns only +$0.54 — ML wins the EV race clean.

Better arm, better pitcher on the mound in a must-win spot. Arizona moneyline at 2.17 is the play.

I called Pittsburgh 5-3 and you want me to bet Arizona? Pass. I'm backing my read — Pirates moneyline, home field, wild card on the line, crowd loud. This is their night.

Q, you'd fade your own mother if the model said -EV. Pittsburgh wins this one. I'm on the Pirates.

Better pitcher, wild card pressure — Q's right. Arizona moneyline at 2.17. Done.