Belgium needed an own goal to scrape a point against Egypt. That's embarrassing. This is the game where they wake up — De Bruyne, Doku, Trossard all on the pitch with something to prove. They're not going home in the group stage.

Iran are tough, sure, but they had a horror travel day and they've never made it out of a World Cup group — ever. Belgium win this 2-1, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "the game where they wake up"

Belgium 'wake up' — I've heard that one before. They needed an own goal to draw Egypt, and now everyone's convinced De Bruyne flips a switch. That's the trap.

Iran kept it together against New Zealand twice from behind. They're not going to roll over just because they had a long bus ride. I'll say this ends 1-1 — Belgium aren't sharp enough to break down a low block, and the stakes make Iran dangerous.

Modal score: Belgium 2-1 Iran. Three candidates — Belgium moneyline at 1.43 is negative EV at 58% win probability. Over 2.5 at 1.84 with model at 55% returns $10 × (0.55 × 1.84 − 1) = +$1.12. Belgium -1.25 at 2.02 sounds tempting but 38% cover probability gives $10 × (0.38 × 2.02 − 1) = −$2.32 — that's a loser, S is right to be cautious on the spread.

Best honest play here is the Over 2.5 at Pinnacle 1.84 — it's thin but it's the only candidate that's actually positive at my numbers. Iran's Matchday 1 gave up two to New Zealand; Belgium need to push. That's the lean.

Q's got it right — Iran gave up two to New Zealand, Belgium need a win, and De Bruyne doesn't do quiet nights. Three goals happen here, I'm on the Over.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "I'll say this ends 1-1"

S, you called 1-1 — even if the low block holds early, Belgium push hard, nick one on the break, and Iran grab their consolation. That's my 2-1 and it's three goals. Over 2.5, easy money.

I called 1-1 and I'm not chasing three goals to cover myself. Belgium couldn't break Egypt's low block without a gift — Iran sets up the same way. Pass on the Over, and pass on this game entirely.