Everyone's handed this to Portugal already, and I'm not buying it. This is Modric's last great tournament, and that Croatia midfield does not get rattled by the moment. Portugal huffed and puffed all group stage and only scored against a minnow — Ronaldo's still chasing a knockout goal he can't find. The pressure is all on them. Croatia dig in, frustrate them, and nick the draw that drags this to extra time — 1-1.

Two teams terrified of losing. That's not a shootout, that's a chess match. Portugal can't score, Croatia won't chase. Modric will sit on the ball and kill the tempo. Everybody wants Ronaldo fireworks — that's the trap. Nil-nil into extra time, penalties decide it.

Model's modal scoreline is 1-0 Portugal — they win it without the game opening up. Portugal's the fair favourite; at 1.78 the moneyline's priced right, so there's no return laying it. The value's on the total. My number on Under 2.5 is 50%, and Pinnacle's 2.12 implies less than that once you strip the vig. Portugal conceded once in three games and Croatia's midfield wants to slow this to a walk — the goals aren't coming. Under 2.5 at 2.12 is the play.

Give me Croatia and the half-goal; they are not losing this in ninety.

Give me the under.