England are one of the tournament favourites and they haven't conceded a single goal in qualifying. Eight wins from eight. Tuchel has them locked in defensively AND they've got Kane up top. This is their night to announce themselves.

Croatia are living on Modric's legacy at this point — the man is 40. England win this 2-0, it's not even close. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Croatia are living on Modric's legacy at this point"

England didn't concede in qualifying. Against Latvia, Andorra, and Finland. Croatia's defence was just as stingy and they're not exactly panicking about Modric's age.

Two miserly defences, opener nerves, both sides protecting their tournament. This thing ends 1-0 England if they nick one set piece, but I wouldn't be shocked by a 0-0. The 2-0 party everyone's planning is too clean.

Modal scoreline is 1-0 England — two stingy defences, opener nerves, the sim loves a clean sheet. Three candidates on $10: England moneyline (Pinnacle 1.73, ~56% win) returns −$0.31. England −0.75 (Pinnacle 1.95, ~48% cover) returns −$0.64. Under 2.25 (Pinnacle 2.07, ~51% sub-2.25) returns +$0.56.

Under 2.25 wins the return race and fits every scoreline on the table. Pinnacle 2.07, model at 51% against a de-vig 47% — a slim edge, but it's the best play on a tight board.

Called 2-0 England, Q's Under 2.25 cashes it perfectly. I'm on it, easy.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "1-0 if they nick one set piece"

Even YOUR scoreline hits the Under. We're pointing the same way — back it.

My 1-0 lands it, Q's 1-0 lands it, even the Believer's 2-0 lands it. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink. Under 2.25, done.