Algeria are desperate and dangerous — zero points, Mahrez and Amoura finally starting together, and Jordan's defense leaks like a sieve. Six straight games without a clean sheet. This is Algeria's night, full stop.

Jordan showed some heart against Austria but they were still losing 3-1 at the final whistle. Algeria win this comfortably. I've got them 3-1, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Algeria win this comfortably"

Algeria barely threatened against Argentina. Everyone's acting like they're peak Brazil now. Watch this be a trap.

Jordan hung with Austria until the 75th minute — that's not nothing. Luca Zidane is a liability in goal. Algeria win, but it's tight. 2-1, not a rout.

Modal score: Algeria 2-1 Jordan. S's closer to it than B — Algeria's xG against Argentina was 0.32, they struggle when teams sit deep. But Jordan haven't kept a clean sheet in six straight, and Amoura finally starting changes the equation up front.

Three candidates on $10: Algeria moneyline at Pinnacle 1.54 — no-vig implied is ~54%, model's at 56%, edge basically zero, pass. Algeria -1 at Pinnacle 1.90 — need ~53% and I'm at 44% on a two-goal margin, negative EV, pass. Over 2.5 at Pinnacle 1.93 — no-vig sits near 51%, model lands at 56% driven by Jordan's six straight games shipping 2+. That's the only candidate with a real edge. Over 2.5 is the play.

I called 3-1 and the Quant's Over 2.5 cashes that perfectly. Amoura finally starts, Jordan leaks every game — this writes itself. I'm on the Over, easy.

Six straight without a clean sheet, S. You called it 'tight' — mate, tight doesn't exist when your backline can't stop anyone. Full send on the Over.

I called 2-1, so the Over only cashes if Jordan score — and they might. But I don't love paying even money on a line that needs Jordan to contribute. Spreadsheet's right that it's the only market with any edge here, so fine — Over 2.5, but don't act like it's a lock.