Two trips to San Antonio, two wins — this Knicks team just does not blink. Now they finally come home, the Garden is going to be rocking, and you want me to bet against them? Brunson's been playing on one leg and still bullying the whole building. When a team is rolling like this, at home, with a chance to put somebody away — they show up. It's not like I'm laying ten. It's two and a half. Give me the Knicks to handle business and go up 3-0.

Everybody's already burying the Spurs — down 0-2, star stunk, series over, right? That's the trap. Wembanyama was terrible in Game 2 and they still lost by one. He won't be that bad again. Desperate team, getting points, every game decided on the last shot — I'll take that. The public's piling on the Knicks at home. Give me the two and a half with San Antonio.

San Antonio +2.5 is 1.92 at 1xBet; the other side, Knicks -2.5, is 2.00 there. Strip the vig out of that two-way and the fair price on the Spurs covering is about 51% — a coin flip with a slight lean to the dog. My model lands at 53.5%, a little above the market, for two reasons: Wembanyama's Game 2 was a low outlier that should regress upward, and with every game in this series decided by a single possession, the extra 2.5 points carry real weight. New York's home edge is the main thing pulling the other way, and it is already priced in. Net it out and there is a small but positive edge on the points with San Antonio.