The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball and nobody's told the bookies. Five straight, three sweeps in four series, and now they roll in with Sonny Gray, who hasn't lost a game since April. The Mets just coughed up a five-run lead to the Royals and their season died months ago.

Normally I'd run a mile from the hottest team in baseball — that's exactly the money the books feed on. But look at the other dugout. Last place, thirteen losses in seventeen, Vientos just broke his hand, and the kid on the mound has been getting shelled for three straight starts. The trap would be the Mets at home, not Boston.

Model says Red Sox 5-3. The market makes Boston 45% after the vig; a 10-1, 2.61 ERA starter against a rookie carrying a 9.00 ERA over his last three, backed by the form gap and the Vientos loss, gets me to 50%. Matchbook posts 2.24, top of a thirty-two book field and well above the 2.13 median — ten dollars returns about +$1.20 expected. That's the biggest honest number on tonight's board. Red Sox moneyline, 2.24 at Matchbook.

Boston rolls them 6-2, watch this.

Red Sox 4-2, and it's not complicated.