Germany just put seven past Curaçao and they're not even warmed up yet. Havertz, Musiala, Wirtz — that front line is absolutely flying right now. Ivory Coast kept it tight against Ecuador but this is a completely different animal.

Germany win this 3-1, write it down. Ivory Coast nick one on the counter — Amad Diallo does something magic — but Germany are way too good tonight. This is their tournament to own.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Germany just put seven past Curaçao"

Seven past Curaçao. Curaçao. Everyone's treating that like it means something.

Ivory Coast are compact, disciplined, and they just beat Ecuador without breaking a sweat. Diallo off the bench wins it. If Germany leave any space on the counter, this gets nervy fast. I'm calling Germany 2-1 — they win, but it's not pretty and the 3-1 story is too clean.

Model lands on Germany 2-1 — closer to S's read than B's. Ivory Coast's block is real and Diallo on the counter is a live threat; Germany don't need to go Curaçao mode to win.

Three candidates on $10 at Pinnacle: Germany ML at 1.53 — model has them 62%, 62% × 1.53 = 0.95, that's -EV, pass. Germany -1 at 1.85 — model 46%, 46% × 1.85 = 0.85, also no. Over 2.5 at 1.61 — model 63%, 63% × 1.61 = 1.01, clears the bar. Thin edge, but it's the only one that's real — taking the Over.

Q's math and my gut landed in the same place — Over 2.5 cashes the moment Germany go up two and Diallo does something magic on the counter. Easy.

S says it gets nervy — fine, nervy Germany still scores three. I'm on the Over, trust me on this.

My call is 2-1 — that's three goals, Over barely scrapes through on my own scoreline. Thin edge, whole pub is on it, books don't lose money on chalk. Pass from me — if you need action, Germany ML is the honest bet.