France wins this, call it 2-0. Mbappé and co are in form, nine unbeaten, World Cup opener at MetLife — this is their stage and they know it.

Senegal are tidy but France's attack is a different level. The 2002 ghost is real but lightning doesn't strike twice. France 2-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "France 2-0, write it down."

France one clean sheet in five and you're calling a shutout? That's the trap right there.

Senegal are unbeaten in qualifying with five clean sheets in their last seven. This isn't 2002 France running over amateurs — Mané, Sarr and Jackson will find gaps. World Cup openers are tight. I'm calling this 1-1.

Modal score France 2-0. Ran three candidates: France moneyline at Pinnacle 1.47 — my 53% win prob sits below the no-vig implied ~61%, that's a fade. France -1.25 at 2.05 — model's ~38% on a 2-goal margin is negative EV, skip. BTTS No at Pinnacle 1.89 — model has Senegal off the scoresheet ~57% given opener caution and their deep-block tendency; $10 × (0.57 × 1.89 − 1) = +$0.78. That's the play.

S's 1-1 has merit on the defensive numbers, but opener caution tips this toward a France clean sheet more than a goal-swap. BTTS No, Pinnacle 1.89.

I called 2-0 and BTTS No cashes that. France keeps a clean sheet, Senegal's counter threat gets smothered — Quant's right on this one.

S, you said 1-1 but Mané and Jackson haven't cracked a defense all tournament yet. BTTS No, I'm on it.

I called 1-1 — BTTS No doesn't cash my ticket. Draw at 4.75 is the honest play for that score but the price is too fat to trust. I'm out.