Sofia Kenin vs Eva Lys prediction — the Three Pundits debate (WTA Cincinnati)

Lys is only in this draw because somebody pulled out. She lost her qualifying final. She didn't earn a place here, she inherited one. And look what getting this far cost her. Six sets across two night matches. The second one finished after one in the morning. Before the tournament had even started for her. Kenin has been a Grand Slam champion. She's had two weeks off and she's got a clean pair of legs.

Let's not pretend Kenin is in any form. Two matches since the end of July and she lost both. But I'm not backing Kenin so much as refusing to lay a price on Lys. She pulled up with a back injury eleven days ago. She's got a joint condition she carries all season. The German press have spent the summer writing that she can't stay fit. And she's the favourite. That's the bit I can't get past. Rusty beats broken more often than the market thinks.

Kenin's 2.38 at Betfair and I make this closer to a coin flip than that. Here's what you're laying it against. Lys is a lucky loser, so she's already lost a match this week. Getting here took her six sets over two night matches, the last finishing gone one in the morning. Eleven days ago she retired mid-match with her back. She also has an autoimmune joint condition and missed two months of this season with a knee. That's not one bad week, that's a body that keeps breaking down. I'll be straight about the other side: Kenin hasn't hit a ball in a fortnight and lost her last two. Rust is real. It's just cheaper than what I'm getting paid to fade.

Give me the fresh one against the girl with the bad back.

Two-one, and I won't enjoy a minute of it.