Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca prediction — the Three Pundits debate (ATP Canadian Open)

The kid already did this. He beat Ruud in Paris, on clay, over five sets — the surface and the format that suit Ruud best — and then went and knocked out Djokovic in the same week. Now he gets him on a hard court Ruud hasn't set foot on since March. Fonseca's swinging free, he's just beaten Tsitsipas, and he says the bounce suits him. Straight sets.

Careful. Ruud took Cerundolo apart on Wednesday, six-one six-two. That is not a man whose timing is gone, and everyone in here is about to bet against him because a nineteen-year-old is fashionable. The thing that gets me isn't the Paris match, it's the calendar. He hasn't played a hard-court match since March and he's had three retirements in ten months. Best of three gives him nowhere to hide and nothing to grind out. Fine.

The number that decides this is a date, not a ranking. Ruud has not played a match on a hard court since the twentieth of March. His clay year is superb and his hard year is a coin flip, and the coin-flip half of it is four months stale — you don't get that timing back in two matches. Against that, Fonseca has already beaten him this year, on clay, over five sets, which is the version of Ruud that's hardest to beat. There's no handicap worth taking here — the game lines are set lines in disguise and the total is priced where it should be. So it's the outright, and I make Fonseca about a 65% shot with Coolbet at 1.74.

Watch this.

Fonseca in two.