Canada at home, crowd going absolutely mental in Vancouver, David and Larin up front — and Qatar just scraped a draw with an own goal in the 94th minute. This is Canada's night, trust me on this.

Qatar park the bus, Canada break them down, Larin gets one, David gets one. Canada win this one, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Canada win this one, write it down."

Canada haven't won a World Cup match. Ever. And now everyone's pricing them like a lock at home? That's exactly when it goes sideways.

Qatar nicked a point off Switzerland with ten men behind the ball and won it in stoppage time. They know how to kill a game. Canada 1-0 Qatar — one ugly goal, Qatar park it, and the Believer's storybook finish never comes.

S's right Canada have never won a World Cup game — model doesn't care. Modal score is Canada 2-1: David opens it, Afif nicks one on the counter, Canada hold on. Three candidates: moneyline at 1.30 is negative EV after vig, Canada -1.5 at 1.93 needs 37% and isn't there. Over 2.5 at Pinnacle 1.76 with model at 58% is the only play that returns positive.

Both MD1 games went over, Qatar gave up 1.56 per game in qualifying, and Canada's press generates chances even when they're sloppy. Pinnacle's no-vig implies ~53% on the Over — model's at 58%. Over 2.5, Pinnacle, 1.76. That's the play.

Look, I wanted the clean sheet but the Quant's right that Qatar nick one on the counter — they always find a way to scratch a goal. Call it 2-1 Canada, Over hits either way.

Qatar's idea of a fortress is an own goal in the 94th minute. Over 2.5, Pinnacle, I'm on it.

I called 1-0, so the Over's not my bet. Quant's not wrong about the leaky defense — I just don't trust it. Pass.