New York have been on the road for five days and this is the last stop. LA on Tuesday, Vegas on Thursday, both of them shootouts, now Phoenix at noon. And they're doing it without Sabally and without Fiebich. Phoenix have had two days at home, everybody's fit, and they've won three in a row. Alyssa Thomas is running that offence better than anyone in the league right now. Give me the home team and the points.

Phoenix are eleven and eighteen. Let's not get carried away about who they are. What I'll say is that New York are the better team on paper and the line was built for that team. It isn't that team today. Two starters out, one in concussion protocol with no date on it, third game in five days, tip at noon local. I'm not backing Phoenix to be good. I'm backing a line that hasn't moved for news it should have moved for.

Work out what this line should be and you land almost exactly where it is. New York are better by about seven per hundred possessions, which is five and a half points on the night, and you knock about three off for Phoenix being at home. That gets you New York by two and a half. Which is the line. So the board is pricing a healthy, rested New York. The team actually flying into Phoenix has Sabally in concussion protocol with no return date, Fiebich out with a foot, and is playing its third game in five days at the end of a western road trip. Phoenix have had two days off at home and nobody on the report. None of that is in the number. I make Phoenix about a 57% shot to stay inside it, and LowVig pay 1.97. That is the bet.

I actually think they win it.

Give me the points and I'll take a loss by two.