Platense vs Coquimbo Unido prediction — the Three Pundits debate (Copa Libertadores)

Coquimbo won their group with Nacional and Universitario in it. Platense crawled through behind Corinthians, and Platense are the ones held together with tape — a cruciate, an Achilles, two more carrying bad backs.

Champions of Chile don't come to Buenos Aires to admire the stadium. They win this 1-0.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Champions of Chile don't come to Buenos Aires"

Champions of Chile was last season. This season they're fourth, and nobody in here can tell me who's actually fit for them — the only injury list that exists is a fortnight old.

You're right that Platense are patched up. You're wrong that it makes Coquimbo good. Two ordinary sides, a first leg, a return to protect, and they've never met. Nobody scores here.

S and I get to the same place down different roads — he has nobody scoring, I'd give them a goal each. Either way it's level, and the useful bit is that Coquimbo topping that group is a better result than anything Platense managed.

So it's Coquimbo +0.75 at 1.65 with Pinnacle. Not the rung below it, even though that one pays more: there, a level match only hands you half your money and a one-goal defeat takes the lot. This one pays a level match in full and still returns half the stake on a one-goal defeat. It takes a two-goal beating to break it, and I don't see where that comes from.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "This season they're fourth"

Fourth in Chile while playing a Libertadores run isn't a stain, it's the bill. You don't top a group with Nacional in it by accident.

I'll take the cushion and still tell you Coquimbo win it 1-0.

The bet doesn't need B to be right and it doesn't need me to be right either. It needs the margin to stay inside two goals, and a home side missing four bodies in a first leg they'd happily take a level result from isn't the profile of one that wins by that. Goal each for me.

I've talked myself into agreeing with the optimist, which I hate. We're not backing Coquimbo to be good, we're backing Platense not to be two goals better than them, and there's nothing in that squad list that says they are. Goalless for me, and I'll take the cushion.