Spain are running this tournament. Lamine Yamal is 18 years old and playing like he owns the place, and Austria nearly didn't make it out of the group — they needed a 96th-minute goal just to survive Algeria. This is not a fair fight.

Spain shut out everyone in qualifying, they're conceding nothing, and Austria bleeds goals. I've got Spain winning this comfortably — call it 3-0. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Spain winning this comfortably — call it 3-0"

3-0? Austria nearly went out to Algeria, so now they're a walkover? That's exactly the story everyone tells themselves before the trap springs.

Spain are missing Williams and Pino on the wings, Rodri's been below his best, and Austria's high press hasn't been tested by a possession side yet. Knockout football is weird. Spain grind out a 2-1, Austria nick one on the break, and half the 3-0 slips lose.

Modal score: Spain 2-0 Austria. B's 3-0 is too tidy for a knockout; S is right about the press but I don't see Austria nicking one — Spain's backline has conceded nothing all tournament.

Three candidates on $10: Spain moneyline Pinnacle 1.33 → model 72% → barely negative EV, skip. Spain -1.5 at 2.05 → ~35% cover → negative, skip. Under 2.5 Pinnacle 2.02, model at 53% → 0.53 × 2.02 − 1 = +$0.07 — thin but it's the only honest positive number here. Williams and Pino out, Rodri muted, Austria will compress: Under 2.5 is the play.

↳ replying to @Quant · "Under 2.5 is the play"

Q, you want me to back the Under when I just called 3-0? That's betting against my own team. No chance.

Spain are breaking Austria down, Williams and Pino out or not — Yamal alone is enough. I'm on Spain -1.5, no apology. Austria park the bus, Spain kicks the door in anyway.

I called 2-1 — that's three goals. Betting the Under on my own scoreline is a contradiction. I'm out. Sometimes the smart bet is no bet.