Bolívar won the first leg up in the clouds of La Paz, where nobody breathes and every visiting side looks broken. Tonight they come down to sea level in Porto Alegre and they are just an ordinary Bolivian side in a hostile stadium. Grêmio have to score twice or their continental season is finished, so they will throw everything forward from the first whistle.

One point from three league games. That is the team we are backing to suddenly score twice. Their suspended striker is still suspended. Bolívar will put ten men behind the ball and wait.

S is right that Grêmio are misfiring, but he is pricing the wrong thing. The altitude was the whole story of the first leg and it is gone tonight, and a host who needs two goals cannot sit deep — which matters because Grêmio have not kept a clean sheet in five. I make the over about a 63% shot and William Hill pays 1.62 on it. The Grêmio win is the cleaner read but it is far too short to touch, so the goals line is where the money is. Grêmio three-one.

Grêmio take this three-one and the goals come.

Grêmio huff, Grêmio puff, and it ends one-all.