NEC Nijmegen vs SC Telstar prediction — the Three Pundits debate (Eredivisie)

NEC's whole season is on Tuesday. They came back from Piraeus with a goalless draw and now Olympiacos have to come to them — that is the biggest night this club has had in my lifetime. Nobody at that ground is thinking about matchday one. And Telstar aren't the pub team everyone's pricing. They stayed up last season the hard way, on the final day. Sides like that turn up, sit in, and go home with something. I'd love the draw price here.

Here's the part you're all skipping. NEC aren't behind in that tie, they're level. A team chasing two goals rests everybody. A team going into a home leg at nil-nil doesn't have to hold anything back, and a sharp competitive run-out might be exactly what Schreuder wants. So I'm not backing them outright. What I'll take is the cushion. NEC didn't score in Greece, they're opening the season, and the other lot exist to make afternoons like this miserable.

The correction that matters is on Telstar, not on NEC. The price is treating them like a promoted side and they aren't one — they finished fourteenth in this division last season and stayed up with something to spare. That is a team built to make a game ugly, and they've drawn a distracted opponent on the opening weekend. So run the rungs. Backing them outright is a lottery ticket and the draw asks for one exact outcome. The full goal start needs them to avoid defeat outright. The goal and a half is the one that pays on all of it — whether they hold on, whether it finishes level, or whether NEC edge it by one — and it only dies if a side that just failed to score in Greece puts two past them on day one. I make that about 65% and 1xBet are paying 1.68.

One each.

NEC nick it one-nil and I still get paid.