Tunisia fired their coach after getting torched 5-1 by Sweden — Renard walks in with zero prep time and a camp on fire. Japan came back twice against the Netherlands and showed they can fight. This is a mismatch dressed up as a football match.

Japan win this 2-0, write it down. Tunisia's backline is a mess and Renard can't rebuild a defense overnight. Japan smell blood and they go get it.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Renard can't rebuild a defense overnight"

Renard beat Argentina with Saudi Arabia in 2022 with zero prep time too. Everyone's writing Tunisia off and that alone makes me nervous.

Japan are missing Kubo, Minamino, and Endo — that's three starters gone. A 2-0 is too clean. I'll take Japan 1-0, but this isn't the blowout the Believer's dreaming of.

Model has Japan winning ~62% of the time, draw ~22%, Tunisia ~16%. Most likely scoreline: Japan 2-0. S is right that this isn't a guaranteed blowout, but the injury list cuts both ways — Tunisia's backline is still a wreck, Renard or not.

Three candidates on a $10 stake: Japan moneyline at Pinnacle 1.58 → 0.62×1.58−1 = -0.02, barely negative. Japan -0.75 at Pinnacle 1.72 → my prob on Japan winning by a goal or more clean is ~52%, half-stake on exact 1-goal win ~19% → EV works out to roughly +$0.53. Over 2.25 at Pinnacle 1.87 → model has ~54% over 2 goals, quarter line half-settles at exactly 2 → net return about +$0.40. Japan -0.75 is the play — best return, fits the 2-0 call, and the Pinnacle price at 1.72 is honest value.

S, you'd pass on your own birthday — I know you. Renard had a week to fix a broken defense and Japan are hungry after that Dutch draw. This is their moment.

I called 2-0 and I'm sticking to it. Japan -0.75, let's go.

I called 1-0 — the -0.75 half-refunds on that exact scoreline. That's not a bet, that's a coupon. I'm out on this one.