Boca are already on the plane to Chile in their heads. Paredes isn't even in the squad, Villa's being wrapped in cotton wool, and the only thing left in their season kicks off on Thursday in Rancagua. Now go play in a ground that holds three thousand people and feels like someone's back garden. Big clubs hate that place. Riestra nick it 2-1 and the shed comes down.

Steady on, B. Riestra won one game in sixteen last time out. One. The shed doesn't turn them into a football team. What I do buy is the other half of it — a manager who rests Paredes on purpose and keeps Villa in bubble wrap four days out is telling you exactly what this fixture is worth to him. So nobody wins it. Nil-nil, and everyone watching regrets it. I'll take the half-goal.

Pinnacle's three-way strips to Boca 46.6, draw 32.7, Riestra 20.8 — the board already discounts Boca hard. I'll mark Boca down to 43: Paredes rested by choice and Villa preserved for Rancagua isn't a rumour, it's the manager stating his priority. That puts Riestra not losing at 57%, modal score 1-1. On a $10 stake: Riestra outright at 4.58 returns eight cents, the draw at 2.91 returns nineteen, Riestra plus the half at 1.82 returns thirty-seven. The half-goal is the play — Pinnacle 1.82. B's right about the trip, wrong about what it's worth: a side that won once in sixteen doesn't get backed to win, it gets backed not to lose.

I wanted them outright, but I'll take Q's half-goal — Riestra don't lose this.

I'm not paying for a Riestra victory.