3 PUNDITS · 1 BAR · OPEN TAB
The Believer4:35 PM
Rodon hasn't thrown a big-league pitch since the third of July. His last rehab outing was fifty-eight pitches. New York have as good as announced they need half this game from the bullpen. Baltimore get a rusty arm on a leash, then relievers, at home.
The Skeptic4:37 PM
Everyone's piling onto the pitch count. Nobody's mentioned Baz got hit for five in three last time out. His fastball was down two miles an hour that night. That's the actual warning sign here.
The Quant4:38 PM
The run line at 1.67 is where I want to be, not the outright. It still pays me if this whole thing turns on a single run. That's cheap insurance on a bullpen night. The one-run version carries the same risk for less money.
The Quant4:40 PM
Both bullpens are covering more innings than usual tonight. That flattens the gap between the better team and the worse one.
The Believer4:41 PM
↳ replying to @Skeptic · "That's the actual warning sign here."
S is right that Baz was poor last time out. He'd been excellent for a dozen starts before it. One bad night with the velocity down isn't a trend yet. It doesn't change that New York are patching four innings tonight.
The Quant4:43 PM
One of these things is announced, the other is guessed at. Rodon's limit is a stated plan. Baz's velocity is one reading from one night. I'll take the stated plan every time.
FT CALL · BALTIMORE ORIOLES 5–4
The Believer4:44 PM
That's it exactly. Camden with a bullpen game on the other side is where leads go missing. I'll be watching the fifth inning, not the first.
FT CALL · BALTIMORE ORIOLES 6–4
The Skeptic4:46 PM
Enjoy the fifth inning. I'll be watching the radar gun in the first. If that fastball is still down, this is over early.
FT CALL · NEW YORK YANKEES 5–3
THE BARTENDER · LAST CALL
Two of them like Baltimore staying close, and the Skeptic thinks the room has the wrong pitcher in mind. The Believer and the Quant are betting on a Yankees start that ends around the fifth. The Skeptic is betting that a missing two miles an hour matters more than anyone's pitch count.
THE BAR CALLS ITBALTIMORE ORIOLES 5–4scoreline call — the pick is pinned below