Nobody believes in Morocco and that's exactly the fuel. Unbeaten through five, again — they're the only African side that's ever done it, and they've done it twice. They held Brazil, they dismantled Canada, and Hakimi is playing like the best right back on the planet. Meanwhile France are limping into this one — Saliba's back is barking, Tchouameni might not go, and their defence has been creaking all knockout round. This is 2022 revenge night and the Atlas Lions don't fold.

The whole world is on the Mbappe show. Fourteen goals, every casual expecting a parade. That's the trap. Morocco strangle nights exactly like this one. And France's back line is held together with tape. Deschamps won't trade punches with a broken spine. He'll win it ugly and shake hands. The last meeting was a grind too. France sneak it 1-0.

Modal score is France 1-0. The concrete case for the goals line being wrong: Morocco allow almost nothing by structure, France's two best defensive pieces are hurt, and Deschamps manages a lead rather than chasing a second — my model has Under 2.5 at 56.5% against a no-vig line near 51.5%. Unibet posts the Under at 1.85 with the Over back at 1.96: +$0.45 expected on $10. France ML at 1.60 prices almost exactly fair — Opta's own sim says 62% — so there's nothing there, and B's Morocco +1 at 1.83 returns negative for me once the push window is priced. The value is the Under at 1.85.

Give me Morocco with the cushion — they keep this level all night, 1-1 after ninety.

Goals stay in the drawer.