Senegal are the story of this tournament. Lost their first two, backs against the wall, then dropped a 5-0 and became the first team EVER to reach the knockouts after losing the opening two group games. That's not luck — that's a team that woke up.

Belgium looked shaky all group stage until the New Zealand massacre, and Senegal just lost their keeper. But Mané is alive, they score in bunches in the second half, and I think this game opens up. Belgium win it, but Senegal make them work — Belgium 2-1. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "a team that woke up"

Senegal 'woke up' against Iraq. Iraq. Don't confuse a 5-0 mauling of a group-stage whipping boy with actual form.

Both teams riding a garbage-time feel-good win into a knockout. Belgium's keeper is real, Senegal's isn't. That's the only difference that matters. Belgium win a scrappy one — 1-0, clean sheet, no drama.

Modal score Belgium 2-1. Three candidates: Belgium moneyline at Matchbook 2.28 → 50% × 2.28 − 1 = +$0.14. Belgium -0.25 at Pinnacle 1.91 → 46% to cover × 1.91 − 1 = -$0.12, that's negative, skip. Over 2.25 at Pinnacle 1.92 → 52% × 1.92 − 1 = +$0.00, basically flat. Moneyline wins the return race.

Mendy's out, Senegal's backup is untested at knockout level, and Belgium's front four is the quality gap in this bracket. Matchbook 2.28 is the sharpest Belgium price on the board — we take it.

Scrappy 1-0? Mané's running at a backup keeper with nothing to lose — this opens up. Belgium 2-1, Matchbook 2.28, I'm on it.

My score is 1-0, so the moneyline's the only bet that doesn't contradict me. Matchbook 2.28, fine — but I'm not excited about it. Belgium win ugly, books still collect from everyone who bet the Over.