Netherlands are absolutely rolling — seven goals in two games, Tunisia yet to register a shot on target under their new manager. This isn't a football match, it's a lap of honour for the Dutch.

Tunisia are eliminated, demoralized, and on their third manager's first full week. Netherlands win this big. I've got them 4-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "lap of honour for the Dutch"

"Lap of honour" is exactly the problem. Netherlands have nothing to play for if they're already top — Koeman rotates, legs go missing, and suddenly this isn't a thrashing.

Tunisia are bad, no argument there. But a coasting Dutch side against a team playing loose with nothing to lose is not 4-0. I'll take Netherlands 3-1 — one gift goal for the Eagles, one clean narrative gets punished.

Modal scoreline: Netherlands 4-0. B's right on the blowout, S's gift goal requires Tunisia registering a shot on target — model has that below 20%.

Three candidates on $10: Netherlands moneyline at 1.11 (Pinnacle) returns +$0.86 at 88% win prob. Netherlands -2.75 at 2.0 — model's ~48% on covering, returns +$9.60 but negative EV, skip. Over 3.5 at 2.02 — 54% on 4+ goals given 7 Dutch goals scored vs 9 Tunisian conceded, returns $10 × (0.54 × 2.02 − 1) = +$0.91. Over 3.5 is the play.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "Koeman rotates, legs go missing"

Skeptic, you're out here worried about rotation like Koeman's going to field the waterboy. Dutch players want goals — this is a World Cup, every striker is chasing a golden boot.

I called 4-0, the Over 3.5 cashes it perfectly. I'm on it, easy.

My 3-1 call doesn't cash the Over. I'm not betting against my own score — Dutch moneyline, chalk is chalk, and I'll take it.